Canadian Council on Learning | Conseil Canadien sur l'Apprentissage

Canadian Post-secondary Education
A Positive Record – An Uncertain Future

Chapter 3 highlights

A skilled and adaptable workforce

Canadians have long enjoyed an enviable standard of living, which relies on a growing, productive economy. Economic growth depends upon the skills and talents of Canadian workers. Canada’s post-secondary education (PSE) and training sector plays a vital role in developing a skilled and knowledgeable labour force. However, demographic trends and emerging labour-market shortages signal the urgent need to determine the amount, the distribution and the quality of human resources development required to maintain our quality of life.

One of the most significant problems in the near term is an anticipated major shortfall in post-secondary graduates by 2013, when up to 70% of new and replacement jobs will require PSE.^[1] Currently, only 44% of working-age Canadians have PSE qualifications. However, many of these are baby boomers who are approaching retiring from the workforce. Although post-secondary attainment rates are higher among younger Canadians, the existing labour-market shortage will not be bridged without continuing increases in participation and attainment rates.

Labour shortages are currently most pronounced in highly skilled trades such as construction and mechanical trades, but will be felt with increasing urgency in other vocations as the Canadian workforce ages and the number of trainees completing apprenticeship programs declines—even as demand continues to grow. Without a significant increase in completion rates among the apprenticeable trades, an inadequate supply of trained workers may hamper—and, in some cases, already is hindering—economic growth in many parts of the country.

The worsening labour shortage is not limited to skilled trades: employers in numerous fields, such as engineering and health services, are reporting critical shortfalls in the number of suitable candidates available to fill vacancies. These trends will be replicated across all occupations in the coming decade as aging baby boomers leave the workforce.

Reliance on immigration alone will not meet either current or future labour-market needs. To meet the pressing need for increased human capital, Canada must ensure that all residents, whether native-born or new Canadians, are able to achieve their full potential, whatever their current employment status, literacy or education levels.

Post-secondary institutions will play a critical role in enhancing the skills and qualifications of Canadians to meet growing labour market demand. However, the post-secondary sector needs to define its role in ongoing learning, and its capacity to fill this role, both now and in the future. In order to do this, more comprehensive information on labour market demand and supply dynamics is required. At the moment, information available in this area is far from comprehensive.

The following information gaps must be filled:

• Forecasting labour-market demand and supply needs to be improved—at the local, regional and national levels.
• National data on post-secondary completions by field of study are required to gain a better understanding of the ‘supply’ side of the equation. A national picture of demand and supply would enable better linkages between labour markets and the post-secondary education and training sector, as well as assist individual Canadians in making educational and career decisions.
• Further analysis of the labour-market experiences of recent immigrants is needed. This information would also support policy and program responses to facilitate the integration of recent immigrants and the proper use of the skills they bring to Canada.
• The Workplace and Employee Survey of Statistics Canada needs to be enhanced to collect robust information and perform a detailed examination of the kinds of skills required in key sectors, and to measure the results of PSE in providing graduates with such skills.
• Tangible data about the direct impacts of PSE on productivity need to be gathered and analyzed.
  

^[1] Bergeron L.P., Dunn K., Lapointe M., Roth W., & Tremblay-Côté N. (2004). Looking Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market 2004-2013. Human Resources and Social Development Canada: Policy Research and Coordination Directorate, Strategic Policy and Planning. SP-615-10-04E. Ottawa.

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