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• Composite Learning Index
• Health Literacy
• Post-secondary Education
• Reading the Future
• State of Aboriginal Learning in Canada
• State of E-Learning
• State of Learning in Canada
• Redefining success in Aboriginal learning
• Commissioned Reports
• Question Scans
• State-of-the-field Reviews
• Systematic Reviews
• Review 1: Criteria used to effectively measure research and innovation in PSE environments
• Review 2: Measuring quality in post-secondary education
• Review 3: Accurately forecasting labour market needs
• Review 4: Factors influencing post-secondary enrolment increases and decreases
• Review 5: Policies & practices supporting the Educational achievement and social integration of first and second generation migrants
• Review 6: The Social Consequences of Economic Inequality for Canadian Children: A Review of the Canadian Literature
• Review 7: Adult Literacy: A Synthesis of Evidence
• Review 8: Examining the impact of homework on academic achievement
• Survey of Canadian Attitudes toward Learning
• Literacy Assessment
• Lessons in Learning
• Journal of Applied Research on Learning
• Data Warehouse

Systematic Reviews

Factors influencing post-secondary enrolment increases and decreases

Executive Summary

This paper identifies and systematically reviews the empirical evidence used to determine the factors that influence increases and decreases in post-secondary education (PSE) enrolment. The review applied thorough and transparent procedures to the collection and analysis of evidence from research-oriented articles obtained from a variety of academic and fugitive sources disseminated between 1985 and 2006.

Generalizations based on this research should be made with caution. Most of the studies presented here use econometric techniques, which apply a theoretical assumption of “rational choice” to PSE enrolment decisions. The assumption in this case is that students choose the path of minimum cost and maximum benefit. As Scott Swail and Heller (2004) point out, higher education is not the same as other goods and services: the price is less flexible, the supply is more fixed and the demand may be determined by many factors. The social and psychological costs of pursuing PSE are not measured in econometric equations but certainly may influence enrolment decisions (Rasmussen 2003; Junor and Usher 2004; Looker 2001). A further reason for caution is that most of the studies presented here are based on institutions in the U.S. where the PSE context differs from that of Canada.

Nonetheless, we believe there are a number of considerations that arise from the studies reviewed in this report, including, but not limited to, the following:

• Enrolment consistently responds to the price of tuition. Tuition increases relate to enrolment decreases, and tuition decreases relate to even stronger enrolment increases. Thus it seems that decision-makers can increase and decrease tuition to influence enrolment in the direction deemed necessary. However, these decisions must be made with an awareness of how tuition changes may affect access according to socio-economic status (SES) and ethnicity.
• Increased student aid corresponds to increased enrolment and persistence; however, the response is not as strong as that to tuition changes of equal value. The role that aid plays differs for high- and low-income students; aid is not always effectively targeted to achieve the goal of increased access for disadvantaged groups.
• High unemployment rates appear to correspond to increased community college enrolment and general PSE enrolment of males and higher-income students, but they may not affect, and may even discourage, the enrolment of females and low-SES students. Thus unemployment rates may affect the future supply and demand of skilled workers.
• PSE enrolment appears to respond to fluctuations in wages: if wages for high-school graduates are higher, enrolment is lower, and if the premium paid to PSE graduates is higher, enrolment is higher.
• Low-SES students are consistently less likely to enrol in PSE than high-SES students. Parental education level seems to be a key social determinant of enrolment; students whose parents have PSE are more likely to pursue PSE themselves. This suggests that increasing the general education level of society, as well as creating incentives for older students to attend PSE, may have a long-term positive effect on PSE participation rates.
• Decisions regarding PSE begin long before the end of high school. If a goal is to increase access for disadvantaged students and students in general, it may be necessary to consider introducing social, educational, and financial intervention earlier in their education.

View the full report (829 KB) 

 

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