Question Scans

Question Scans

Question 16: Is it possible to accurately forecast labour-market needs?

Overview

The purpose of this question scan was to determine the feasibility of conducting a systematic review of the literature devoted to educational planning for an expected skill shortage. This broad topic was divided into two questions:

  1. Is it possible to use labour-market needs as a mechanism for determining access to post-secondary opportunities?
  2. Is it possible to accurately forecast labour-market needs?

Searches applying a broad range of applicable search terms to four major databases initially yielded 291 articles potentially relevant to either or both questions. Subsequent examination of article abstracts reduced the number to 134. Of these, 97 seemed to address Question A, and 86 seemed to address Question B. Many of the articles were relevant to both. A search of government and professional/sectoral organization websites yielded an additional 16 documents potentially pertaining to both questions.

Question A
An initial review revealed a few articles directly addressing the use of labour-market forecasting to establish post-secondary access. Often this literature comprises government reports, and describes specific cases where jurisdictions attempted to match the programs offered at colleges to the requests of local employers. These documents appear difficult to access in cases where they will have to be mail-ordered from the appropriate authority; in other cases, full text documents are available on the web.

The scholarly material pertaining to question ‘a’ encompasses a range of genres: editorials advocating for stronger ties between the labour market and post secondary institutions; qualitative studies describing workforce development at colleges; and, quantitative work that indicates where opportunities in the future may lie, and hence what sorts of training are necessary. Overall however, quantitative work addressing Question A is thin.

 Question B

 Literature speaking directly to Question B appears to be of four types:

  1. generic theoretical models of labour forecasting;
  2. models for labour-market forecasting in specific industries or occupational sectors;
  3. reports or descriptions of actual labour-market forecasts; and 
  4. evaluations and/or critiques of labour-market forecasting methods and actual forecasts.

Often little can be gleaned by surveying the abstracts of articles pertaining exclusively to Question B. Labour-market forecasting techniques seem to vary widely in their sophistication. Some commentators seem to find simple forecasting methods unsatisfactory.

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